The crisis that engulfed the world in 2009 also affected Japanese-Brazilian economic relations, particularly in the area of foreign trade, which saw a 25.4% drop in trade. In 2009, there was a reduction in Brazil's total exports of around 22.7% and 26.1% in total imports, reflecting the recession faced by the global economy. Trade relations with Japan were also influenced, Brazilian exports fell by 30.2% and imports by 21.1%. Of the top 100 most exported products to the Japanese market, 64 showed a decrease in value, generally reflecting the drop in Japanese imports, which was around 29% in the period January-November 2009.
The products most exported to Japan were the most affected, among the top five in terms of values, four showed negative results in 2009, with the exception of soybeans (even crushed), the fifth most exported product, which grew by 14.36% , reaching US$245.8 million. All others had a reduction in exports: non-agglomerated iron ores and their concentrates (US$ 1031.0 million) drop of -28.98%, rooster/chicken pieces and offal (frozen) (US$ 611.1 million) loss of -47.27%, unalloyed aluminum in raw form (US$ 389.6 million) reduction of -27.97% and unroasted, non-decaffeinated coffee in beans (US$ 288.7 million) minus 2, 96%.
The positive data were the results of manufactured goods, among which the highlight was the sale of aircraft, which achieved a growth of 610% in 2009 in relation to 2008. The first Embraer 170 jet was delivered to the largest airline company in Asia, Japan Airlines , in October 2008, another seven, according to data from the Ministry of Industry and Commerce, were delivered in 2009. The promising scenario of expanding aircraft exports to Japan was obscured by the announcement of JAL's bankruptcy on February 19 of this year , by the Enterprise Turnaround Initiative Corp. (Etic), a Japanese entity responsible for coordinating the recovery of companies. However, there are optimistic analyses, which in this difficult situation of the Japanese company, have good prospects, as in its restructuring project it plans to retire all of its 37 Boeing 747-400s and all of its MD-90s to exchange them for smaller planes, which could be from Embraer.
In addition to airplanes, four other products that saw the biggest increase in exports were duvets, instruments for controlling engine speed, hermetic motor compressors (capacity<4700 frigorias/hour) and other amino acids and their esters and salts, with respective increases of 366. 1%, 155.2%, 149.0%, 118.8%.
There are positive signs for 2010, as Brazilian exports to Japan. The reversal of the constant growth trend that had been seen since 2002 was only reversed in November 2008, when it reached US$499.3 million, a drop of 29.1% in compared to October of the same year, when it reached US$704.5 million. The lowest point was in February when it reached just US$290.2 million, but after that, exports began to grow again with the perception that the international crisis might not last so long and because of positive signs from some economies.
From March 2009 onwards, Brazilian exports to Japan showed a resumption, albeit unstable, of their growth trajectory, reaching a volume of US$544.1 million in December. The value is still below the value exported in October 2008, but it could be a sign that this year Brazil will be able to obtain more positive results in its trade relations with Japan.
*Brazilian Association of Japanese Studies (ABEJ), affiliated with Discover Nikkei, contributes this article to Discover Nikkei. ABEJ is a non-profit organization that brings together professors and researchers from different areas of knowledge about Japan, experts, students and people interested in Japanese issues.
© 2010 Alexandre Ratsuo Uehara
