Since the end of 2008, global economic problems have led Japan to a rapid slowdown in the level of economic activity, resulting in the layoffs of many dekassegis. Therefore, at this moment, a recurring question is what will be the future of these workers? And the answer is directly linked to the performance of the Japanese economy, as in recent years, its positive results have been closely linked to foreign trade.
At the beginning of 2008, there were already projections of a slowdown in the global economy, but the impacts of the collapse of Lehman Brothers were not projected. At first, the Japanese financial sector was not as severely shaken as that of the USA and Europe, as its institutions did not have a large volume of assets related to subprime mortgages. However, since the second half of 2008 the yen has gone through a period of appreciation. , which can be explained by the “carry trade” - financial operation of purchasing hard currency yen with a very low interest rate, for investment or payments where the interest rate is higher. Comparing the exchange rates presented by the Bank of Japan for the period from August/08 to January/09, the appreciation of the yen was 17.7% against the dollar, going from 104.76 yen/dollar, to 89. 51 yen/dollar.
With the appreciation of the yen, Japanese products became more expensive in dollars on the international market. Thus, exports, already affected by the slowdown in the world economy, suffered a sharp drop. As a consequence, exports declined 11.85% in the third quarter of 2008, according to the Japan External Trade Organization (Jetro). January's result was even worse, with a drop of 34.1%. In January, one of the biggest declines referred to sales to the North American market (42.8% less). This number is important, as the United States represents 16.4% of total Japanese exports.
Parallel to the problems in foreign trade, which caused the trade balance result to go from a surplus of US$775.3 million to a deficit of US$3.25 billion, there was a retraction in the domestic market. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication, since the first quarter of 2008, indicators have been showing a tendency to reduce consumption. Therefore, we see a double contraction in demand. The result of this scenario was a 12.7% decline in GDP in the last quarter of 2008, compared to the same period in 2007. In 2009, reports of difficulties persist. For example: it was announced that in February there were 1,318 bankruptcies, a record for a single month in the last six years.
Given this scenario, many dekasseguis were fired, whose work had been threatened for some time, due to competition with Asian workers, whose wages are lower. And, in the short term, the employability of Brazilians in Japan is not expected to improve, as the economic recovery is not expected to be quick in that country. There were expectations that, in the second half of 2009, the world economy would begin to show signs of recovery. However, the pessimistic mood persists.
For example, the automotive sector, which employs a large number of Brazilians directly or indirectly, continues to publish discouraging results. In February 2009 there was a strong decline in vehicle exports by Japan, around 63.9%. The domestic market shrank by more than 24%.
As a result, the outlook is that more layoffs will occur and there is little hope of vacancies reopening in the short term. Therefore, Brazil must prepare for the return of the dekasseguis.
* Brazilian Association of Japanese Studies (ABEJ), affiliated with Discover Nikkei, contributed this article to Discover Nikkei. ABEJ is a non-profit organization composed of professors and researchers in various fields of study about Japan, in addition to specialists, students, and others interested in Japanese issues.
© 2009 Alexandre Ratsuo Uehara
