Foreign immigration to combat declining birthrates: Is its effect in Japan limited?
It is said that the problem of low birth rates and aging populations will become more serious in many developed countries, including Japan, and this trend is likely to be unavoidable even in Latin American countries, where the total fertility rate is often thought to be high. In the United States, when national elections come around, candidates emerge who emphasize the benefits of immigration, such as "immigrant women have more children; young immigrants can do any job, provide labor for industries with labor shortages, and have a high rate of entrepreneurship; they spend most of their income domestically and send the rest home." 1 . Some also point out that an increase in immigrants will increase the vibrant working population, increase tax revenues and social security contributions, and be a financial benefit2. However, it is unclear to what extent these claims are true and whether immigrants actually bring the above-mentioned benefits to all countries of immigration. At least when looking at the birth rate of foreign women living in Japan, there is a research report that shows that there is no such effect.
In the United States, Hispanic and Asian immigrants are increasing, with the former making up 13% and the latter 4%, accounting for about 20% of the total population (2010). It is estimated that by 2050, they will be 29% and 6%, respectively. The increase in Hispanics is particularly notable3 , which means that the total fertility rate of Latin Americans is quite high. However, when evaluating the economic effects, etc., it seems that in some regions and industries, it is lowering the domestic wage standard, which is not very welcome for non-Hispanic white job seekers with the same level of education. In addition, with regard to tax revenues and social security, it has been pointed out that it is increasing the burden of medical insurance on the government.
Another country with many immigrants from Latin America is actually Spain in Europe, but the country's total fertility rate is 1.4, almost the same as Japan, and the lowest in the EU. The aging population is also very serious, with the population over 65 years old rising to 22% (Japan is 25%). Of the total population of 46 million, 4.7 million are foreigners, accounting for 10.5% of the total population4 , but since the economic crisis several years ago caused a large number of South American immigrants to return to their home countries, the population has been decreasing by several hundred thousand each year. It can be seen that the contribution of immigrants to Spain to the low birth rate is limited. In addition, there are also increasing cases of young people with education and experience migrating to Latin America in search of work5. The OECD points out that Spain has a structural problem that prevents the birth rate from increasing, as it is difficult to balance work and child-rearing in a society.
Meanwhile, in Europe, France's total fertility rate has almost recovered to 2.0, and is being presented as a success story of high fertility rates. This figure reflects the high fertility rate among immigrant women; if the number of children brought from their home countries is included, the fertility rate among immigrant women becomes 2.6, and France's actual total fertility rate becomes 2.16.6 In any case, while the total fertility rate of immigrant women in Europe is over 2.0 points, many native women have a rate below 1.5.7
Even in South America, where people have a strong image of having many children, the birthrate is now declining. The big powers Brazil, Chile, and Colombia have birthrates of 1.8, while Argentina and Paraguay are on the higher side at 2.3 and 2.6, Uruguay at 2.0, and Bolivia at 3.0. Bolivia and Paraguay have high infant mortality rates and their average life expectancy is not yet that high, so a simple comparison cannot be made. Furthermore, even within these countries, the results vary considerably depending on whether they live in urban or rural areas, and on education and income levels. In Asia, even China, with its 1.3 billion people, and the vibrant Vietnam, have birthrates of 1.7.
In Japan, the current Abe administration has a policy of raising the current total fertility rate of 1.42 to 1.8 through support for child-rearing and for women to improve their skills, but no expert is optimistic. Looking at Japan's postwar statistics, in 1950 the rate was 3.65, which was higher than the current rate in the Philippines (3.0), but by 1970 it had fallen to 2.13, and has been on a downward trend ever since (it was lowest in 2005 at 1.26). Every time measures to combat the declining birthrate are discussed, examples from countries such as France are introduced, and the acceptance of migrant workers comes up in the discussion.
According to a paper by Dr. Masakazu Yamauchi and Dr. Yui Korekawa of the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, 8 who are authorities on population issues, the birth rate of foreign women in Japan is not that high. According to Yamauchi's paper, the birth rate of Filipino and Thai women was quite high from the mid-1980s to the 1990s, but as they settled there, it gradually decreased, especially in urban areas, and is now below the average for Japanese women. The number of children born to foreign couples (where the husband or wife is foreign) is 32,000 per year (2013), but the number of births to foreign mothers is half that number, which is only 1.5% of the national total of 1.01 million per year. Even in the Japanese-Peruvian community in Japan, with which I have the most contact, the average number of children is about two, although it varies by household, and not all of them are born in Japan.
According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare's Vital Statistics, 9 from the mid-1990s to 2008, the annual number of births was 600 to 800 for Peruvian nationality and 2,400 to 3,000 for Brazilian nationality, but after the Lehman Shock of 2008, perhaps because many returned to their home countries, in 2014 statistics the figures were 512 and 1,643, respectively. The total number of births to foreign mothers was 14,993. Looking at the percentage of illegitimate children by nationality, 2.2% were Japanese, 23.6% were Filipino, 32.5% were Peruvian, and 29.2% were Brazilian, which are the highest levels in Japan.
Yamauchi says that, in the case of foreign women with Japanese husbands, Filipino and Thai women tend to have many children, but Brazilian and Peruvian women behave differently. In an analysis based on 2005 census data, Peruvian women had the highest total fertility rate of 1.99 among foreign women, followed by Filipino and Brazilian women at 1.57. By region, it is noteworthy that the birth rate for foreign women in Kanagawa Prefecture was 1.45, while in Aichi and Shizuoka prefectures, where Brazilian populations are concentrated, the rates were 1.29 and 1.20, respectively, lower than the birth rate for Japanese women. A more detailed study of each community is needed to determine why this trend is occurring, but it may be that women refrain from pregnancy due to the large number of night shifts, the burden of childcare and career paths, the need to maintain the standard of living they have achieved, and remittances to their home countries.
Korekawa Yui points out that the birth rate of foreign women in Japan varies considerably depending on their nationality, and that the birth rate of international marriage couples is even lower, but she also announces that, except for Filipino and Vietnamese women, the birth rate of all nationalities is lower than that of Japanese women. The birth rate of Filipino and Brazilian women in their teens and early twenties is higher than that of Japanese women, but remains at a low level after their thirties, with most foreign women, regardless of nationality, having a birth rate of less than 1.2 (2010). Also, when comparing those who have lived in Japan for less than five years with those who have lived in Japan for more than five years, there is no significant difference, but the birth rate tends to decrease as settlement progresses. However, in the case of Korean and Vietnamese women in Japan, the birth rate tends to rise slightly after the settlement process has settled down, but it is still lower than the level of Japanese women.
Statistics and analyses show that Japan cannot stop the declining birthrate even if it accepts young foreign immigrants. Like Spain, Japan has structural problems that prevent the birthrate from increasing, and it may be that the government's policies to promote the birthrate and promote women's social advancement are not working well together. Even if immigrants come from countries with high total fertility rates, it is not guaranteed that women from those countries will have many children in Japan. While living in Japan, they come to understand how the various systems work, but in a society where even Japanese women do not have children, even though everything is better developed than in their home countries, it may be natural that immigrant women refrain from having children.
The easy-going idea that immigration as a human resource will help curb population decline does not work in Japan. Unless it is deemed reasonably possible for everyone, regardless of nationality, to raise and raise children, and balance work and family life, it may not be possible to halt the declining birthrate.
Notes:
1. Philip Martin and Elizabeth Midgley, Inmigración en los Estados Unidos 2010 , PRB Population Reference Bureau, Migration News Editor, 2010.
2. Peter Hamby and Kevin Liptak, The fertilizer of immigrants: an argument in favor of EU migrant reform, CNN Mexico, 2013.06.14
3. US Census Projections With Constant Net International Migration
4. " The problem can be solved by reducing the number of extraneous materials ," ( El País , 2015.04.21)
5. Alberto Matsumoto, " What is migration from Europe to Latin America? " (Discover Nikkei, July 19, 2013)
6. François Héran, “ Certain ideas about immigration ”
The website also has a translation: "Preconceptions about the high birth rate of immigrant women in France 2006-01.28-fenestrae.pdf"
7. " Illustrated: Total fertility rates of native women and immigrant/foreign women in Europe "
Hayase Yasuko and Obuchi Hiroshi (eds.), Population Issues in Major Countries and Regions of the World, Hara Shobo, 2010.
8. National Institute of Population and Social Security Research Staff
Masakazu Yamauchi, "Recent births and birth rates of foreign women in Japan," Population Problems Research, December 2010, pp. 41-59.
Korekawa, Yu, "Fertility of Foreign Women in Japan: An Analysis Using Individual Census Data," Population Problems Research, December 2013, pp.86-102.
9. FY2014 Special Report on Vital Statistics "Demographic Trends in Japan - Vital Statistics Including Foreign Nationals" (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare)
© 2016 Alberto J. Matsumoto
